Non-oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Error Correction Modeling
Keywords:
Non-oil Sector, Agricultural Export, Manufacturing Export, Error Correction MechanismAbstract
This study looked at the trend, short-term relationships, and long-term relationships between non-oil export and growth factors in Nigeria in order to determine the effect of non-oil export on economic growth. The National Bureau of Statistics and the CBN statistics bulletin were utilized to provide aggregate time series data for the years 1986 to 2021. Using the Johansen co-integration and error correction mechanism method, the data was examined. The theory of export-led development served as the paper's foundation. According to the results of Johansen co-integration, there is a long-term link between non-oil export variables such agricultural export, manufacturing export, exchange rate, and economic growth proxy measured by gross domestic product, while there is a short-term association. Results from the error correction model revealed that non-oil exports had a large negative influence on economic growth. The analysis came to the conclusion that if the non-resource sector, in particular its export capability, was effectively developed, it might outperform the windfall of natural resource profits. The non-oil export will benefit Nigeria's economic expansion. In accordance with the findings, the research advised that the government develop plans and strategies to strengthen non-oil export sectors including agriculture and industry in order to construct robust and strong non-oil export sectors that can achieve sustained economic growth. Furthermore, Nigerians should be reoriented in some way so that they may modify the way they think about buying products made locally.
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